Poker Equity Vs Pot Odds
Apr 02, 2019 If you aren’t familiar with pot odds in poker or if you just want a refresher, you’re reading the right article. You are about to learn what pot odds are and how to calculate them step-by-step. After that, we will go over 3 examples of using pot odds in different situations (preflop and postflop). This time, your pot odds are much better, at 3:1, or 25%. Your equity hasn’t changed; it’s still at 38% and over the course of many hands you will win 38 cents for every dollar in the pot. But this time around, your equity is greater than your pot odds, and you are only contributing 25 cents for every dollar in the pot.
Learning how to calculate the odds of winning a poker hand is essential for every player. In this article we'll provide you with some techniques that you can use to calculate the odds of winning a poker hand on the fly, we'll equip you with a tool that can do that for you and provide you with some useful information that you can memorize.
Poker Odds and Outs Calculations
Let's start with the basics. With the exception of the very strong holdings like some flushes, quads etc. almost every poker hand can improve. Outs are the cards that will improve your hand if they show up at a later street. For example, if you're holding AQ on a Q34 board you can still improve to two pair or trips if you hit on of the three Aces remaining in the deck or one of the two remaining Queens.
- Gutshot Straight Draw (examples: JT on Q93, 57 on 69A etc.) - 4 outs
- Open Ended Straight Draw (examples: 98 on T72, KQ on JT5) - 8 outs
- Flush Draw (examples: AhQh on 2c7h9h, 4d6d on JdKd8s) - 9 outs
Pot Odds
Pot Odds - the size of the pot in relation to the bet that you have to call to continue playing the hand. Pot Odds are usually represented in the form of a ratio (2:1, 3.2:1, 4:1 etc.). Pot odds are essentially the risk you have to take (call) to gain the reward (size of the pot).
Let's say that the size of the pot on the flop equals 2$. Our opponent is betting 1$. To continue playing we have to call 1$ and if we do we can win 2$ + 1$ = 3$. We're getting 3 to 1 pot odds. Now let's make it a bit more complex, pot size is 3,55$, opponent bets 2,33$. We have to call 2,33$ to win 3,55$ + 2,33$ (5,88$). Our pot odds are 5,88$ / 2,33$ = roughly 2.5 : 1.
Let's say our opponent is betting 2$ into 6$ pot so our pot odds equal 4:1. To convert the ratio into % add both sides of the ratio (4 + 1) and use that number as a divisor for the right part of the ratio (1 / 5 = 20%).
In the example above you need to win 20% of the time to break even when your opponent is giving your 4:1 pot odds. How often do you need to win to make the call in other popular situations? Here are some examples for you to memorize:
- 1:1 = 50%
- 2:1 = 33%
- 3:1 = 25%
- 4:1 = 20%
Rule of 2 and 4
Now that you know what pot odds and odds are you can learn the quick way of calculating the percentage chance of your hand improving. It's called the rule of 2 and 4 and it's very simple:
With one more card to come (on the flop waiting for the turn or on the turn waiting for the river) multiply your outs by 2 to calculate the % chance of your hand improving. With two more cards to come (opponent all-in on the flop or any other situation when you have to call just one bet to see both turn and river) multiply your outs by 4 to calculate the % chance of your hand improving.
Example: You're holding T8 on a J24 board, you have 9 outs to hit your flush. Villain goes all in on the flop. Your % chance of improving to a flush equals 4 * 9 = 36%. Let's consider the same situation but this time flop went check/check, the turn is an Ace of clubs and your opponent is betting. Your % chance of improving in that situation would be 2 * 9 = 18%.
Hand vs. Hand All-in Pre-flop
Example | Odds | %Odds/Equity | |
Pocket Pair vs. Smaller Pocket Pair | AA vs. TT | 4 : 1 | 80% |
Pocket Pair vs. Two High Cards | 88 vs. AQ | 1.2 : 1 | 55% |
Pocket Pair vs. Two Low Cards | QQ vs. 67 | 4.9 : 1 | 83% |
Pocket Pair vs. High Card and Low Card | JJ vs. A9 | 2.3 : 1 | 70% |
Two High Cards vs. Two Low Cards | AJ vs. 78 Mass effect 3 citadel dlc wrex casino. | 1.9 : 1 | 65% |
High Card and Low Card vs. Unpaired Hand | AT vs. KQ | 1.2 : 1 | 55% |
Odds of Improving Post-flop
Example | Outs | Flop%/Odds | Turn%/Odds | |
Gutshot Straight Draw | JT on Q83 | 4 | 16.5%/5.1 : 1 | 8.7%/10.5 : 1 |
Two High Cards | AK on 962 | 6 | 24%/3.1 : 1 | 13%/6.7 : 1 |
Open-Ended Straight Draw | 89 on A76 | 8 | 31.5%/2.2 : 1 | 17.4%/4.7 : 1 |
Flush Draw | AhQh on Jh5h8c | 9 | 35%/1.9 : 1 | 19.6%/4.1 : 1 |
Flush Draw + High Card | As2s on 8sQs4d | 12 | 45%/1.2 : 1 | 26.1%/2.8 : 1 |
Open-Ended Straight Flush Draw | Td9d on Jd8dKh | 15 | 54.1%/0.85 : 1 | 32.6%/2.1 : 1 Are winnings not paid to an individual because he orshe is a VEP participant includible in gross income?W-2G ReportingUnderSec. Prize winnings irs. 6041, a casino is, in general, required to reportpayments of winnings to gamblers of $600 or more in a taxyear. |
Poker Odds Calculator
So far you've learned about outs, odds, calculating the chance of improving your hand on the fly, and figuring out if it's profitable to make a call based on the pot size and bet size of your opponent. That's enough to get you started, but it probably doesn't answer every question you might have.
Maybe you want to figure out what's the equity of your set vs. two opponents holding a flush draw and straight draw? Maybe you want to know if your hand has any chance of winning in a 5-way family pot. Fortunately, we got you covered! You can answer those and many other questions using the Odds Calculator provided below:
Here's a quick guide on how to use the odds calculator:
- In the top right, you can choose your preferred game (you can even calculate the equity of winning a hand in games like Omaha Hi/Lo or Razz).
- Choose the number of players in the pot.
- Click on player's hole cards and assign them using the list provided at the bottom of the calculator.
- You can add cards to the board in the same way.
- Click 'Get Odds' et voila!
Now you can calculate the odds of winning any poker hand. With such a powerful tool at your disposal, you'll improve as a poker player in no-time!
Other Top Recommended Content
If you enjoyed reading this article, check out our other top recommended articles on poker mathematics!- Poker Maths - Combinations
- Odds & Outs
- Odds & Outs
- Bitesize Poker Concept - Implied Odds
Learning about pot odds may sound too difficult and over-ambitious to beginner or recreational poker players. I would say that it’s a lot more difficult and over-ambitious to get into poker hoping to win anything without first learning the most important basics.
Another reason to get a solid understanding of the basic theory is to avoid future pitfalls of copying plays from very good players without really understanding the concepts at their core. This is very common and often leads to costly mistakes.
What are pot odds?
When facing a bet, pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a call.
For example; if you face a $50 bet on the river into a pot of $50, you risk $50 (cost of calling) to win $100 ($50 bet plus the $50 already in the pot). This give you the pot odds of 100-to-50, or 2-to-1.
For your call to be profitable you need to win at least 33% of the time when calling in this spot. You can calculate this by dividing the amount you have to call by the total pot after calling:
50/(100+50) = 0.333
When bluffing, you risk however much you bet in order to win what is already in the pot. So if we look at the same example again, except you are the player betting $50 into a $50 pot on the river.
Here you are getting 50-to-5, or 1-to-1 on your bluff. This means your bluff needs to work at least 50% of the time to be profitable. You calculate this by dividing your bet amount with the total pot you win if successful (your bet plus what’s already in the pot):
50/(50+50) = 0.5
Even if you betting to get called by worse hands (a.k.a. value betting) it’s good to keep in mind which pot odds you offer your opponents on a call. You want to avoid giving your opponents the right price on a call if they are drawing, or if you are sure they are bluff catching with a weak pair you can offer them decent odds on a call and extract some more value when your opponent would have folded to a bigger bet.
Shortcuts
Instead of making these calculations every time your are betting or calling you can memorise pot odds for typical bet sizing. The percentages for calling below shows either how often you need to win if you are calling a bet on the river, or how much equity you need if you are calling a bet on earlier streets.
Poker Pot Odds Formula
When calling:
- Versus a bet twice the size of the pot: 40%
- Versus a bet 1.5 the size of the pot: 37,5%
- Versus a pot bet = 33%
- Versus 75% pot bet = 30%
- Versus 50% pot bet = 25%
- Versus 33% pot bet = 20%
Poker Hand Equity
When betting:
Poker Equity Pot Odds
- Two times the pot size = 66%
- 1.5 times the pot size = 60%
- Betting the pot = 50%
- 75% pot = 43%
- 50% pot = 33%
Other Considerations
If you are facing a bet on the flop or the turn, you should also consider implied odds and potential fold equity on later streets.
This is something we’ll discuss in more detail in future articles, but for now just keep in mind that:
1. If you are deep stacked and you feel pretty sure that you will have a chance to win your opponent’s whole stack on later streets you can call with less equity than the pot odds tells you to.
2. If you know your opponent has a tendency to continuation bet (bluff) the flop a lot, and you have a hand that can pick up more equity on certain cards (i.e. a runner-runner draw), the exact pot odds are less important as well.
It could either mean you turn a marginal hand into a bluff on the turn or river, or that you call your opponents bet with the sole intention of bluffing when you pick up more equity.
For example, say you call a bet in the big blind with versus a small blind open. The flop is and your opponent bets 3/4 pot.
The pot odds tells you that you need 30% equity when calling, which doesn’t have to be a big concern for you in this case. You are in position with a hand that can make top pair, a straight draw and/or a flush draw on the turn. Or in other words, you have a hand which equity can improve a lot on a lot of turn cards.
At the same time you opponent should have a wide range for betting this flop so he is likely to be giving up with a large part of his range on later streets, giving you good fold equity as well. This presents a great opportunity for you to call his flop bet planning to start bluffing on any [4x],[3x],[8x],[9x] or any heart.
Check out our how to play section
If you enjoyed this video and want to improve your skills further you simply have to check out the how to play section here. Here you will find videos and strategy articles from Josef and a whole host of other top poker talent, all designed to be easy to digest and incorporate into your game.
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