Variance Of A Blackjack Hand
Re: Variance in card counting blackjack. Typical standard deviation for blackjack is 2.5-3 units per hand, with a winrate of +0.01-0.02. Typical NL poker is SD 60-80 bb/hr with a winrate of +5-10 bb/hr. Blackjack Games Blackjack Variants and Blackjack Variations. Blackjack is probably the most popular card game in the casino besides poker, and there are several variations in terms of both the games that are offered and variations in the rules from casino to casino for even the standard game.
US Players and Credit Card, BitCoin Deposits Accepted!
Blackjack Variants and Blackjack Variations
Blackjack Hands Chart
Blackjack is probably the most popular card game in the casino besides poker, and there are several variations in terms of both the games that are offered and variations in the rules from casino to casino for even the standard game. The articles in this section examine some of these different blackjack games and variations.
Black Jack Variations
Blackjack is easily the most popular table game offered in gambling establishments. It is a game which requires concentration, nerves of steel, a keen eye, and more than just a little luck thrown in. Called blackjack (or '21' in Nevada casinos), it is essentially a banking game, the object of which is to achieve a hand whose points are closer to 21 than the banker's hand, but without going over 21. It is most often played with two (counting the house dealer) to seven players.
The name 'blackjack' is used in Britain for a game which is similar to Crazy Eights (they refer to the American game of blackjack as Pontoon). Although, strictly speaking, Pontoon has somewhat different rules too.
Below is a list of rules variations you'll find in different casinos:
1. Dealer Stands on Hard 17-- This is the classic, and most common, rule of blackjack. Under this rule, the dealer will stand as soon as his/her score reaches 17 or above (without an ace in the hand). (Strictly speaking, this isn't even a rules variation, since it's almost always in place.)
2. Dealer Stands on Soft 17-- The dealer stands if she has 17 or better and an ace in his hand. This is more advantageous than if the dealer hits a soft 17.
3. Dealer Hits on Soft 17-- Soft 17 is an optional rule which is not used widely, since most casinos require their dealers to stand on a 17 or better, but it is always used in Blackjack Switch (which we'll discuss later). This variation requires the dealer to draw another card if he's holding a soft 17 (that is, a 17 with an ace in the hand). However, the dealer will still stand on a hard 17. This variation slightly increases the house edge.
If the dealer his on soft 17, the house edge is increased by about 0.2%.
4. Doubling-- Considered one of the most profitable player options, some online casinos entirely prohibit doubling, while others allow it. Some casinos only allow doubling on the first two cards, while others allow doubling on any number of cards. (Being allowed to double down on any 2 cards improves your expectation by a little more than 0.2%.)
When you double down, you double your bet (or you can choose to bet less than the original wager, just never more) and receive one, and only one, additional card to your hand.
Some casinos will allow you to double on any two cards, while others will allow you to double only if your cards are of a certain value, typically 9-11. The latter variation decreases the player's edge by about 0.1%.
5. Doubling After Split-- This variation is uncommon. It allows you to double even after the hands have been split. This improves the player edge by 0.14%.
Splitting is defined as being able divide an initial hand consisting of two matching cards (two aces, two jacks, etc.) into two separate hands and then playing them independently. But keep in mind that 21 is not considered a natural hand (or blackjack) after a split.
In fact, some casinos allow you to keep splitting, as long as you keep getting pairs on the initial hand. The most common rule allows you to split up to three times, thus giving you four separate hands on the table. If doubling after the split is allowed on all these, then you could possibly have as much as eight times your initial bet on the table.
6. Surrender-- While this variant is often prohibited altogether, it can be 'early' or 'late' if allowed. An 'early' surrender can be invoked before a dealer checks for Blackjack, while a 'late' surrender comes after the initial check. If you choose to surrender, you forfeit the hand and lose half of your original bet. Because the 'early' surrender offers such a cheap way out for the players, it is almost never allowed. This variant can make a huge difference in your strategy, and veteran players will drool at the notion of finding an early surrender table.
Poker room online. 7. Insurance-- A commonly available rule for Blackjack, Insurance may also be the least understood. It works like this: if the dealer turns an up-card of an Ace, he will offer 'insurance' to the players. Insurance bets can be made by betting up to half your original bet. The dealer will then check to see if he has a 10-value card underneath his Ace, and, if he does have blackjack, your winning insurance bet will be paid out at 2:1. You'll lose your original bet (unless you also have a blackjack), so the net effect is that you'll break even (assuming you bet the full amount allowable on insurance). If the dealer does not have blackjack, you'll lose the insurance bet and still have to play out your original hand.
And here is a list of blackjack games, from the common to the unusual. (We have plans to expand this section.)
1. Blackjack Switch-- Very popular among online casino players, Blackjack Switch is a blackjack-based game which gives you control over two hands. Both hands have their own betting pocket and, initially, you must wager equally on both hands. There is also a 'super match' betting pocket, which is won if your initial four cards contain two or more matching cards. You can find the odds for the 'super match' bets on the casino table.
In Blackjack Switch, you play both hands separately before the dealer. It is allowable to hit, stand, and double with each hand. Before you make the first move, you may perform a switch between hands (exchanging the two top cards of both hands).
Another difference is that the dealer always plays the 'soft 17' rule and draws another card when he has a 17 with an ace.
If the dealer draws 22, it is considered a push and bets are refunded unless the player has blackjack, in which case the player wins.
2. Spanish 21-- This variant provides players with many player-friendly rules, such as: doubling down on any number of cards (with the option to 'rescue', or surrender only one wager to the house), payout bonuses for getting blackjack with five or more cards, hitting blackjack with a 6-7-8, hitting blackjack with three 7 cards, late surrender, player blackjacks always winning, and player 21's always winning. The biggest difference from a gaming standpoint is that there are no 10 cards in the deck (although there are still jacks, queens, and kings). Besides its various rule variations, Spanish 21 is popular because, with a correct basic strategy, the house has a lower edge than in a comparable standard blackjack game.
3. Double Exposure Blackjack-- The dealer's cards are both face-up.
4. Double Attack Blackjack-- We have a whole section devoted to this game now - check it out.
5. Pontoon - The British version of blackjack, which many people thing is actually an ancestor of the traditional American blackjack game.
US Players and Credit Card, BitCoin Deposits Accepted!
The EV is not changed by playing two hands, but the correlation causes your variance to be larger than if you played one hand.
Yes absolutely.
The EV is not changed by playing two hands, but the correlation causes your variance to be larger than if you played one hand.
Corrélation has no impact on Expectations, only on Variance. More chance to win more and more chance to lose more. The average remains the same.
OP: If you're planning on playing blackjack today for 2 hours, with just basic strategy your EV will be -$X. If you are forced to play 2 hands, and you in fact play just as long as you planned to play before (2 hours) your EV for the day will now be -$2X. You will, on average, lose twice as much as you'd normally lose since you're essentially playing twice the number of hands.
The house edge itself does NOT change. What changes is your total amount of money wagered, which is figured in to EV.
EV = (AvgBet*NumHands)*(-.005)
AvgBet = your average bet approximated over your course of play. If you're a $10 player, never raising or lowering your bet, then your AvgBet = $10.
NumHands = the number of hands you play in the time span you play. THIS is what is going to change that makes you lose more money.
-.005 is a GENERIC -.5%, which 'most' blackjack games are around, but that's also with playing PERFECT BASIC STRATEGY. Thus, if you're playing a slightly poorer game than basic strategy, you might be around -1%, and that 2nd hand is really starting to work on you.
EXAMPLE: using a generic .5% game, $10 flat bet as mentioned above, and an average of 80 hands per hour (pretty typical for your average player)..
*playing 1 hand for 2 hours = 160 hands total)*
EV = (10*160)*(-.005) = -$8
*playing 2 hands for 2 hours = 320 hands total)*
EV = (10*320)*(-.005) = -$16
Now if you're not playing perfect basic strategy for 2 hands
EV = (10*320)*(-.015) = -$48
See how things can go from -$8/hour on average in the long run to -$48/hour on average in the long run? It pays to know basic strategy and bet as little as possible if you're not an advantage player!
Administrator
What is variance?
Others can explain it more precisely, but
Variance is the mathematical word that accounts for luck or random chance.
It represents the range of deviation in any particular set of win or loss results from the expected average results.
If you play a game of blackjack that has a house edge of .5, (for example) for every $100 you wager using Optimal Strategy, you can expect to lose $0.50. But you will almost never have that result on any particular $100 you spend. Instead, you might win, or lose more than that (variance). Over time, and many $100 wagers, your results will conform to that .5 HE.
Hope that helps.
what are the calculations to calculate the variance?
Variance is the average of the square of the difference between the mean and the observations.what are the calculations to calculate the variance?
À simple example to understand variance is this. Imagine you play Heads or Tails. EV is zero, because in the long run each player wins and loses the same amount.
If you play for €1, the variance is 1€^2 (standard déviation €1)
If you play for €2, the variance is 4€^2 (standard dev €2)
Blackjack Hand Calculator
To calculate easily, take the average of SQUARED results, then subtract the square of the expectation.What is variance?
Ratrher than look at the maths consider a number of games you might play. The assumption is you play each games 24 times betting $1 each time and the odds offered are fair. In both these games, in the long term you'll come out even, but consider what might happen over a shorter game.(i) Heads or Tails
One of the simplest of games is Heads or Tails, depending on the result you will either win $1 or lose $1.
On a series of 24 spins, you are just as likely to come out ahead as come out behind. It is very unlikely you'd lose (or win) more than $10.
(ii) Double 6.
Consider a fairly risky game where you roll two dice. If you roll double 6 you win $35, otherwise you lose $1.
Strangely you are (nearly) just as likely to come out ahead as come out behind, but this time if you come out losing (by not rolling any winner) you lose all $24. On the other side you might roll several winners; you have a 1 in 7 chance of winning $48 or more.
In the first game you're not going to win a lot nor lose a lot - the variance is low.
In the second game you could win big (4% chance of over $120) but also there's a fair chance of losing all your money (51%). Being the more risky game the variance is fairly high.
If you know roulette then the first game is similar to betting Red or Black, and the second is similar to betting one number (although in both cases the casino wins something on any zero).
Administrator
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/33335-forum-insults-and-profanity-split/